11 views 17 min 0 Comment

Voter Burnout Is Real

- November 17, 2023

And it’s burning at both ends of our society, but for very different reasons. Also in this issue – Bikers fly high to encourage and support students

woman wearing blue V-neck short-sleeved top

by Martin Davis
EDITOR-IN-CHIEF

With the 2023 election cycle behind us, and the 2024 and 2025 elections already bearing down, expect more of the vitriol we’ve come to witness during election year – which is every year in Virginia.

Before the serious mudslinging begins, however, there’s a case to be made for taking a collective breath and having a serious look at voter burnout.

On this issue, we are burning the candle at both ends. Both with those people over 40 who most-regularly vote and have tired of the endless campaigning, and with younger people, whose frustration with politics is taking an unusual turn.

Before tackling the younger folks, let’s start with the established voter. There is no single reason for their frustration, but talk with voters individually and one theme emerges over and again – money.

It’s the sell-out, not the buy-out

Elections are expensive – this has always been the case; it always will be. And candidates do what they have to do to secure the funds they need. Voters understand that.

Money comes with strings, however, especially party money. And its impact on elections is undeniable. It’s not that Big Money buys out campaigns – again, races are expensive and voters understand that. It’s what happens to the candidates after that money hits the accounts of the candidates that bothers – and harms – voters.

Look no further that the just-completed Senate District 27 race, where party money flowed through both Tara Durant’s campaign and Joel Griffin’s.

As soon as the primaries ended, and the party and PAC money flowed, the three-dimensional candidates who fought to run in the general were replaced by candidates who sacrificed their own thoughts to become the mouthpieces of high-paid consultants and 20-something policy wonks whose first loyalty is to the power struggles in Richmond. Not the voters they play like so many pawns to secure power.

There was little doubt that Tara Durant was the odds-on favorite to win SD 27 in June. Gov. Glenn Youngkin carried this newly drawn district in 2023, and Durant made clear that she was going to run this race on his coattails and his above-50-percent approval rating. Enter mouthpiece No. 1.

Joel Griffin was a late-comer to the race, entering in February and spending heavily to win the primary from Ben Litchfield who had been on the ground for a year building a campaign and an army of young supporters.

Griffin won his primary because he outspent Litchfield, and benefitted from an anemic primary turnout. Why Litchfield’s army didn’t translate into more voters is one of the unsolved mysteries of June’s primary. Whatever the reason, the Democrats elevated Griffin to Mouthpiece No. 2.

Feed the base

With the lines drawn, the predictable set in.

Durant parroted Youngkin all summer and into Election Day, setting out ideas that seemed to come directly from the governor’s policymakers.

“I’m running for senate to make Virginia more secure,” she said in her opening remarks at the UMW debate. “More secure for us financially. More secure for our kids in education. And more secure in our communities.”

It’s little more than a modest reworking of Youngkin’s mantra to make Virginia the “best place to live, work and raise a family.”

Her enemy was also predictable. “[L]iberal Democrats … continue to threaten our security. The only way we can stop them from controlling us is that we not only hold the house, but we flip the senate,” she said during the debate.

Durant would harp on “extremist” and “liberal” throughout the campaign.

The script was as yawn-inducing as it was uninspiring. But it fed the base the consultants appeal to.

Griffin was hardly any better. In a community struggling with affordable housing, traffic congestion, escalating hunger, and one local school system in chaos (Spotsylvania), Griffin instead hammered the party line hard – abortion.

As columnist Shaun Kenney noted, that issue really didn’t move the needle for Dems in this election.

Could anything?

One wonders if the outcome would have been different had Griffin spent a bit more time addressing these on-the-ground issues that are making life in our rapidly growing area more difficult.

Griffin and the Democrats had an opportunity to really hear what people in this community need. Instead, like Durant, they listened to the consultants.

What they missed, and what Durant missed, is that when you run a race on hot-button issues, the difference between victory and defeat is found in the margins.

Neither Durant nor Griffin changed voters’ minds with their consultant-driven campaigns. Those votes were already in the can.

It was the undecided voters they needed – few though they may be.

The one candidate who did capture independent voters’ hearts and minds, step-by-step, was Monica Gary. An independent candidate from Stafford who defied the prognosticators once before to win her seat on the Board of Supervisors and was gaining attention late in the race due in part to her strong showing at the UMW debate, Gary was willing to go anywhere and talk with anyone.

The Margins Vote

Though Gary was never considered a serious contender to win, she was someone who was going to pull votes. But from who?

Gary herself argued that she would take votes from both parties. Short any exit polling, it’s difficult to say if she did. But this much is sure. She was more successful than either Durant or Griffin in hearing what voters have to say and winning them over.

We know this because even though she had far less funds than Durant or Griffin, she was more efficient at converting people to her campaign with those precious dollars than were her Democratic and Republican opponents.

Based on data from VPAP, Griffin not only raised the most money in the race, but he spent the most money per-vote: $97.68. Durant had a substantial war chest herself, and paid significantly less than Griffin per-vote: $78.47.

Gary was the most-efficient of all, however, spending just $69.14 per vote.

Why the yawning difference between Gary and the other two?

Gary is a compelling figure one-on-one. Her ability to connect with the people she speaks with is her strength. It’s why she won the Supervisors seat in Stafford. Her problem was simply one of scale. It’s difficult to translate a personal message and ability to listen into ads that reach enough voters to make her a serious contender.

It’s the challenge that every candidate – especially independent ones – face, but it’s a problem that can be overcome.

Democrat Abigail Spanberger was both a fundraising juggernaut in 2018 and remains a politician who can appeal to the average Joe. It took both skillsets to win her Congressional District 7 seat in 2018 and 2020, when she ran on a platform that appealed to issues voters could relate to.

Her 2022 win owed much in no small measure to a single issue – reproductive choice. But most observers would agree that 2022 was an unusual election, with Roe v. Wade being overturned by the Supreme Court earlier in that election cycle.

Had either Durant or Griffin been able to appeal to the margins with a more-relatable persona that people on the fence could get behind, Durant may have won by a more-comfortable margin. And Griffin may have been the one packing his bags for the state Senate right now.

About those youngsters

The great thing about teaching is that you are able to stay in touch with young minds and what they are thinking and feeling. For too many, people under 25 are understood only through those of that age group in their own family, and the generalizations that the polls paint about Gen Z.

But like every other generation’s, its members are complicated individuals.

In the wake of the 2023 election, I’ve spoken with a decent number of Gen Z students. And what they are saying should worry both Democrats and Republicans alike.

They are turned off to politics not because they believe Climate Change is going to doom us all in five years, but because of what we – the millennials and Gen X and the Baby Boomers – have done to the political system.

If consultants have been highly successful in painting our political races into single-issue corners in order to push power up the chain to Richmond and to Washington while ignoring the local voter, they’ve utterly failed at fooling Gen Z, who see through the shell game.

Young voters are not voting in great numbers (hardly a novelty story, they rarely do), but they are giving up on politics in general. They want a better way to deal with the realities of the world that they’re inheriting from the older generations who have left them saddled with student debt, unable to move toward home ownership, and worried that they’ll ever know a life as full as that of their parents’.

And it is that hope – that our children will do better than us – that has for generations defined the American Dream.

Let’s hope that come 2024 and 2025, candidates begin to figure this out, and run races that appeal to everyone, and away from the single-issue races that grossly oversimply our problems and leave neighbor unable to talk with neighbor.

With voter disgust burning at both ends, the wick is getting mighty short.

Putting the Brakes on Bullying; Lifting Kids to the Skies

- Published posts: 238

by Martin Davis EDITOR-IN-CHIEF

0 Comments
    Jeff

    Voter burnout is real. That’s why Virginia elections should coincide with mid-term congressional elections and presidential elections, as is the case in most states.

    Jeff

    Also, who is Shaun Kenney? I don’t think you’ve ever described his background. He appears to be a far-right ideologue who rejects MAGA while parroting MAGA talking points. What is Kenney’s college degree?

        Jeff

        Thanks, Shaun. I’d recommend taking a writing course at your nearest community college. Virginia’s community college system is great, and I think you’d benefit from it.

            Jeff

            Yeah, I should just ignore you. You’re a pseudo-intellectual and a terrible writer. Bye Shaun!

            Shaun Kenney

            We can compare credentials, I suppose… but I’ve often discovered that those who feel a deficiency in their own education tend to try to project that upon others.

            Always happy to grab a cup of coffee and chat. Wahoowa?

            Shaun Kenney

            On Mr. Davis’ thoughts, your ideas, or my random contribution to the conversation?

            Hope you had a great Thanksgiving!

            Leo B Watkins

            I did, hope you did as well.

            We’d been on pins and needles for the last few months due to my youngest grandson having a health scare which put him in VCU this summer and looked like it may have been due to a serious underlying cause. Instead it turned out to be a passing/manageable phase, God willing, so Thanksgiving took on real meaning this year. Better than winning the lottery. Thanks for asking. Makes me smile just to think about it.

            On my take regarding his column. You’d covered it some before, but if you had anything to add for/against/neutral – wouldn’t mind hearing it.

            PS – Don’t forget to post something for me to complain about in the AM. : )

            Shaun Kenney

            Now that’s the best news all day! Glad to hear he is on the mend and definitely better than any lottery.

            Interesting point re: ranked choice. I wonder if Gary voters were boxed in how they would have gone…

    Dean Gallup

    For the most part this last election, I the standard ad was “[insert Dem name here] wants to defend police, and let criminals roam free” or “[insert Rep name here] wants total abortion ban”. The scripts were do similar and so common, I couldn’t differentiate who they were for. Generic and mind numbing, to the point where I just glazed when the string of them came on the TV. The one ad that stood out was David Trone. I’m not even in his state, but appreciated the “here’s what I’ve done to support my constituents, and what I’ll continue to do.” Somehow, until we start getting civility and discourse in our politics, people are just going to continue to tune out. We are looking for ways to make government better, not to continually battle each other.

    Leo B Watkins

    “Griffin won his primary because he outspent Litchfield, and benefitted from an anemic primary turnout. Why Litchfield’s army didn’t translate into more voters is one of the unsolved mysteries of June’s primary. Whatever the reason, the Democrats elevated Griffin to Mouthpiece No. 2.”

    Facts not entered into evidence.

    It’s never good in reality to write the ending before the story, though I hear it’s good for fiction.

    As I recall, Griffin’s main motivation for entering the race was the very real possibility that Matt Strickland, as the MAGA candidate in the Rep Primary – where usually the most zealous wins – would likely be the Republican nominee. And as an ex-Marine, Griffin’s curricula vitae would provide voters a serious distinction as compared to a liberal, just moved to the area lawyer from Massachusetts would provide to Strickland.

    IMO, as someone who had previously donated to Ms Durant, the enthusiasm from Griffin for his campaign diffused when the threat of Strickland went away. He seemed to be just mailing it in. You heard very little from him from June until September, whereas Durant was plastered all over town, and folks like y’all were ringing Gary’s bell whenever you could.

    And even with that, he would likely have won if Ms Gary’s vanity campaign had not siphoned off voters from him.

    You want to make arguments regarding voter fatigue, ranked choice voting, donors buying votes, etc – sure, have at it.

    Anyone supporting those things really ought to look at Represent VA and give them your support. They do good things.

    But a 30 second ad on TV pretty much limits your scope of detail to make an impression. Anyone going to Griffin’s website could have found much more details about his positions on other things if they choose.

    Still, I’d say Gary’s vanity campaign had more to do with who ended up winning than what ads either of the main candidates ran. Dems fall in love, Reps fall in line.

    Just look at the story y’all reported on Election Day of the MW college student who voted for Gary though he knew it would harm Griffin. Was that Griffin’s fault, or Ms Gary’s if they wanted someone who was pro-life to be the representative, as they both did?

    If there were ranked choice voting, I too would have happily have given Ms Gary my second choice. But to ignore reality and run anyway, in a winner take all system, as Ms Gary did – ended up exactly as expected.

    One wonders if that wasn’t the point.