The 2024 Congressional election is upon us; here’s an early look at what we’ll be watching as the race for the 7th Congressional District seat heats up this year.
by Martin Davis
EDITOR-IN-CHIEF
Though the presidential primary in Virginia comes next month, there’s little excitement as the November ballot looks to be a rematch between President Joe Biden and Donald Trump – a race that again has many questioning the viability of the two-party system.
Excitement is beginning to build, however, around the race for the 7th Congressional District seat. This seat has been held by Rep. Abigail Spanberger for the past six years. However, the congresswoman is leaving to prepare for a run at the Governor’s mansion in 2025. Early signs (very early signs) are that she enjoys a huge lead—both in terms of name-recognition and cash—over her likely closest Democratic contender, Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney.
The field of candidates for the 7th on both the Democratic and Republican sides are lengthy, and four months out from the June 18 primary there are more questions than answers.
As the race unfolds, the Fredericksburg Advance will be bringing you interviews, updates on polls, and analyses of the developing race. Here are some of the things we’ll be watching.
Shift in power? The lines for the 7th District were redrawn for the 2022 race, and the impact was dramatic. In 2020—the last year marking Richmond as the epicenter of the 7th—Spanberger won a squeaker over Republican Nick Freitas by racking up votes in Virginia’s capital, while keeping margins close in Republican counties like Spotsylvania and Stafford.
The 2022 race saw Spanberger win by a larger margin over Republican Yesli Vega in the newly redrawn 7th that moved the urban center of the district from Richmond to Prince William County—a Democratic stronghold. She also gained ground in red counties like Stafford, which she nearly won, and Spotsylvania.
For the Democrats to win this year, they’ll need to hold onto the lopsided margin Spanberger enjoyed in Prince William County in 2022, and not go backwards in Stafford and Spotsylvania. Currently, all the Democratic candidates are from Prince William.
The question becomes, how will the more-conservative voters of Spotsylvania and Stafford respond to candidates based in a region that is significantly further culturally from them than was Richmond?
How will the presidential race affect the 7th? In 2020, voters turned out in record numbers to put Donald Trump out of office. That turnout certainly helped Spanberger turn out the Democratic vote. But voter apathy about a Biden-Trump rematch is palpable. If voters stay away in ‘24—and historically when this happens, it’s Democrats who stay away in far larger numbers—it could make things rough for the Dems on election night. As the old adage goes, Democrats fall in love, and Republicans fall in line. If the Democratic candidate doesn’t inspire, and neither does the presidential race, then strong Republican turnout could flip the seat red.
Will women’s issues play a part? Since the fall of Roe v. Wade, there has been a narrative that Democratic victories since are due in large part to people dedicated to preserving a woman’s right to make her own reproductive choices. Whether this issue still has legs, however, remains to be seen. Single-issue campaigns turn out voters. This will be one issue to watch.
Can anyone connect? The 7th has produced some powerful Congressional leaders. Eric Cantor in 2011, and, of course, Spanberger. Right now, however, none of the names being discussed have been able to energize voters the way Cantor and Spanberger did – but in fairness, it’s still early. Eugene Vindman is by far the biggest name in this race, and he’s got a huge financial edge on everyone. He raised $2 million at the end of quarter four in 2023 and is sitting on $1.2 million in cash. The top Republican in the field, Derrick Anderson, has raised just over $300,000. Vindman is currently making the rounds and spending time in our region to elevate support. Hard work and money tend to breed energy. The first quarter 2024 fundraising report will have a lot to say as to whether that mantra holds will hold true this year.
Nationalized? Congressional elections nationwide have been nationalized since Newt Gingrich successfully created the strategy during the congressional elections in 1994 and swept Republicans into power. The 7th is an interesting district, however. Though we are close to Washington, it’s the problems that come with living in the shadow of the capital that motivate voters – transportation, affordable housing, education – not so much how people feel about what’s happening with the White House. A Biden-Trump rematch could nationalize this race (see above), but whoever wins this race is going to have to get outside the national picture and show voters they mean business about the very real problems we face.
