The new Wason Poll suggests the presidential and senate races in Virginia are all but over. But buried in the data is some information that catch the eye of the two candidates in the 7th District.
The top-line news in the Wason Center’s new poll on Virginians and the 2024 election was splashed in large font across the top of the news release:
Harris Leads Trump by 11 points Among Virginia Likely Voters; Kaine Leads Cao by 20 points in U.S. Senate Contest
However, that’s not the most interesting part of this poll that interviewed 800 registered voters in the commonwealth by landline (211 people) and mobile phone (589 people) and has a margin of error of +/-4.4% at the 95% confidence level. (If that’s a lot to digest, check out this more-digestible explanation of margin of error and why it matters.)
What intrigues is the consistent level of focus voters are bringing to this election.
Consider Wason’s first question to survey-takers:
How much thought, if any, have you given to the elections coming up this fall?
Subscribed
For almost every demographic, the answer is “A Lot” (roughly a third of people responded “A Lot” (Republicans 74%, Independents 76%, Democrat 81%). The other options were “Some,” “Not Much,” “Not at All,” and “Don’t Know/refused”.
Now compare that to how these same voters answered the survey’s third question.
And how enthusiastic would you say you are about voting in the elections this fall? Would you say you are [Very Enthusiastic, Somewhat Enthusiastic, Less Enthusiastic, Not Enthusiastic, Don’t Know/refused].
Those numbers are modestly lower. Republicans (68%) and Democrats (75%) answer “Very Enthusiastic.” But among Independent voters, just 46% were “Very Enthusiastic.”
That’s a notable drop in enthusiasm and begs the question — why are independents less enthusiastic than Dems and Republicans?
The survey itself offers no insights, and there are a range of possible answers. Today’s Independents may feel trapped between two choices they simply don’t like; they may be suffering from election fatigue, an annual issue in a state that has yet to figure out that an annual election is taking a toll on voters; or perhaps they simply find both presidential candidates uninspiring.
That final reason resonates with an evolving understanding of who Independent voters are. Once thought to be simply closeted Republicans or Democrats, a new argument posits that independents are Independents are voters who have simply tired, and are put off, by the negative campaigning and vitriol that the two-party system fuels and governs by. Consequently, they are looking for candidates increasingly willing to buck that reality.
In a tight election, these voters could well be the difference between winning and losing. And this enthusiasm gap suggests that there are still votes to be had in Virginia.
If the Wason Poll is reading the tea leaves correctly, Independents won’t have much sway in Virginians’ choice for president or senate. However, there are tighter races where they may turn the election.
Watch the 7th
Though the poll is statewide and not necessarily reflective of voters in the 7th Congressional District, the low enthusiasm among Independents should be heeded by both Derrick Anderson and Eugene Vindman.
Polling data on this race is scarce. One in August (an eternity in politics, where months are measured in light years) had the race a dead heat. The Hill’s Election 2024 site gives Vindman a significant edge to win, but the evidence supporting that claim is thin.
It weights polls (there really are none at this point) and fundraising (where Vindman holds a significant edge), with softer factors like partisan lean (the site, referencing the Cook Political Report’s “Cook CVI” has the 7th as Dem +0.09).
If the race proves to be close, as the Cook data suggests, a few independent voters could make the difference.
And finding a way to elevate their enthusiasm will be key to turning those voters out on election day.
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