September 5, 2023
by Martin Davis
FOUNDER AND EDITOR
Last November Democrats stemmed a “Red Tide” by riding one major issue – the right of women to control their own personal and reproductive health. Polls and commentators generally agreed that the backlash against the fall of Roe v. Wade kept Democrats close in the U.S. House, and kept them in power in the U.S. Senate.
The power of the abortion issue to draw voters to the polls, however, may be waning here in Virginia.
On September 5, Founders Insight Public Policy Research, a right-leaning organization, released a poll showing that abortion was in second place as the issue most motivating voters. Yet, it was far, far behind inflation as the issue most concerning Virginians.
Of those surveyed, 24% said that inflation was their Number 1 issue. Abortion was named by just 15% of respondents.
This could be explained by the fact that because Virginia did not vote to immediately criminalize abortion – as did many states in the South and the Midwest – when Roe fell, people have had time to think about the current abortion laws and Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s proposed compromise. The result, this polls suggests, is that Virginians are generally satisfied with the laws as they are.
Fully 38% of respondents, when asked “What position on abortion are you most comfortable with” responded favorably to the statement: “The current law in Virginia permitting abortion up until 26 weeks and at any time to save the life of the mother.” Another 26% responded favorably to this statement: “Legislators should work together to find a compromise that would permit abortions up to 15 weeks, when a baby can feel pain, with exceptions for rape, incest, or to save the life of the mother.”
That’s troubling news for Democrats in our area who – like Abigail Spanberger in 2022 – are making abortion a cornerstone of their campaigns. Joel Griffin, running to capture Senate District 27, has come out strong on the abortion issue, as he did recently on the New Dominion Podcast and in his debate with Ben Litchfield during the primaries.
Joshua Cole has also made abortion access a cornerstone of his campaign.
For Republican Tara Durant, who has made growing the economy a keystone of her campaign, this poll is good news. (Nota Bene – Griffin has also made economic growth a cornerstone of his campaign, as has Cole – though Cole has not pushed the issue as strongly.)
But not all is good news for Republicans.
Durant’s leading issue, arguably, has been the parents’ rights movement. But that issue is not sitting well with voters, either.
The Founders Insight polls shows just 7% of voters naming parents rights as the issue that motivates them.
‘It’s the Economy, Stupid’
Lest voters find this poll an outlier – and in some ways it is, because it’s a poll put together by conservatives with deep ties to the Youngkin Administration – take a look at the Wilder School Commonwealth Poll.
Released August 8, it finds that inflation was identified by 36% of those responded as the top issue driving their vote this November.
Trailing far behind inflation are education (18%), women’s reproductive rights (13%) and gun control (12%).
What makes the Wilder poll so interesting is the broad cross-section of Virginians that are deeply concerned about inflation and the impact it is having on them.
Some of the demographic groups most likely to cite inflation and the rising cost of living as the most important issue were Asian respondents (55%), those who completed some college but did not obtain a degree (53%), Independents (47%) and those ages 18 to 34 (47%). Black Virginians were the only demographic group that said an issue other than inflation is the most important issue facing Virginia, with a higher proportion of Black respondents citing education (28%), followed by women’s reproductive rights (21%) and inflation (20%).
Summing it Up
It’s still a long way to November, and voters’ opinions on political issues are notoriously difficult to discern.
But that two polls show a yawning gap between the top issue on voters’ minds – inflation – and everything else should serve as an indicator to candidates that Virginians are feeling the effects of long-term inflation and looking for some relief.
Former Gov. Wilder put it well:
I’ve always had a one-word definition for politics — money — and the people are likewise focused on inflation and the skyrocketing cost of living.
This article is covered by a Creative Commons license.
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-Martin Davis, Editor
Honestly, I have to take a poll result that says women have forgotten about Republicans taking away their ownership of their own bodies with a grain of salt.
Not because it was taken by a Republican leaning statistician. But because, based upon feedback from about every man I’ve met that has been married for over 30 days, as well as 30+ years of personal experience – most women do not tend to forget when they’ve been wronged.
So’ if you want to believe you can believe you can threaten them, insult them, put their lives at risk, and control them – based upon a poll result – good luck with that. My wife can provide detailed, annotated footnotes of errors I made 4 decades ago. And does, when it suits her.
Still, I have no doubt that inflation is hurting many people. How could it not? When the bottom 10th percentile of families (not individuals, whole households) have a net worth of NEGATIVE $1400. And you have to reach the 25th percentile before you get around $12,000 – for all assets – for the whole household. Including pensions, cars, homes, etc.
Yeah, it matters. If you’re on the right side of the line, inflation is an inconvenience. Maybe even an investment opportunity. With all of that money sitting idle. For others, too many, it’s a financial death knell.
It’s hard, when you’re having to work like a hamster on a wheel, just trying to grab the next step, hoping to hold on. When it gets harder, you have to expend even more of your energy. But if you could, what if you could step back and look at, not just the next step – but the system as a whole?
Too often, we’ll hear someone who calls themselves a “conservative” spouting off about the perils of socialism. They consider it a 4 letter world, not to be discussed until over the age of 18, and then only with parental permission.
And yet, when Donald Trump tells you of the places that he dreams of getting immigrants from, it is from the places that have embraced not only the civil liberties that are the core of democracy, but also the socialism that recognizes that all citizens have worth and are worth supporting.
I read with interest a “conservative” columnist from another newspaper today, suddenly realizing that if you’re going to tell women they are now baby factories, with mandatory production requirements – then its hard to justify not supporting them after they’ve done their duty – in service to the state as required by the “good” people who made them (while conveniently ignoring how few children the “good” people are choosing to have despite all religious commands that THEY are ignoring as they kill children too – but anyhoo).
Anyway, if the guilt (or more likely, political repercussions) that Republicans are feeling at the polls after finally succeeding in enforcing their pogrom on other Americans – if that leads them to start delivering some support to women and children who need it, I guess that’s one silver lining to their cloud of oppression.
But maybe those who are voting based only on the next 5 minutes would do better to look at the next 5 years.
And see that voting to invest in our people’s healthcare, childcare, education, civil liberties, etc. while treating our citizens as assets rather than liabilities is in all of our best interests.
When they do that, they might see that the live for today, give it to a billionaire and then hope that what he deigns to trickle down on you after he busts it back out of his Bahama tax haven is what you gave him rather than some processed body function is not how things have to be.
Those countries that do those things? They are many. And they get results. Lower incarceration rates, better health, higher quality of life and satisfaction. Etc. Do a search by country on the things that you care about for your family. Real decent chance you’ll see multiple other countries coming in better.
Because of that philosophy, which aligns much closer with what Democrats believe in this country.
Then choose wisely.
Because hamsters weren’t designed for the sole purpose of entertaining bored people in glass amusement cages with toys. And societies who value their people don’t leave them one health scare away from poverty. Or see feeding their children as a luxury.
When they ought to be seen for what they are, investments in our future.