The Money Race – Part II

by Martin Davis
Editor-in-Chief

On Monday we looked at how money is affecting the race for local offices in Spotsylvania and Stafford – especially for Spotsylvania School Board and for Sheriff, and for Board of Supervisors in Stafford.

New details from VPAP highlight the money race in local races for the Virginia House and Senate.

House District 65

The battle between Josh Cole, who is looking to return to the General Assembly after losing his seat to Tara Durant two years ago, and Lee Peters, a Stafford deputy and political novice, has not just turned bitter – it’s gotten expensive.

Between the two candidates, $3,159,235 has been raised to this point:

• Josh Cole – $1,851,407

• Lee Peters – $1,307,828

That makes this the third most-expensive House race in the Commonwealth when looking at total dollars raised, according to VPAP.

The breakdown of how that money has been raised reflects the extent to which the Republican Party is committed to securing control of both the House and the Senate.

While 41% of Cole’s dollars come from a political party, fully 94% of Peters’ dollars come from a political party.

Most of Peters’ dollars from political parties ($785,000) comes from just three organizations: Republican Commonwealth Leadership PAC, Republican State Leadership Committee, and Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s Spirit of Virginia PAC.

Just 3% of Peters’ funds come from individuals, 1% from business donors, and 2% from “others.”

If this pattern looks familiar, it should. As in the Spotsylvania School Board races, the conservative candidates are heavily financed by a narrow stream of funders. The more-progressive candidates enjoy a broader breadth of support.

That’s true with Griffin. Some 25% of his support comes from individuals (around $307,000), 21% from single-interest groups, 8% from small donors, and 6% from others.

Will broader support translate to more votes?

That’s what Joel Griffin’s campaign in banking on.

Senate District 27

All total, Griffin has raised $1,713,814. Tara Durant has raised $1,313,849. And independent Monica Gary has raised $213,595. That total ranks it – just barely – in the bottom half of all Senate races in Virginia in terms of fundraising (21 out of 40).

Like Cole, Griffin is drawing his funds from a broad support base. Just 22% of his funds come from a political party. Individuals constitute 40% of his total fundraising, while single-interest organizations account for 32% of his funds.

Durant’s based of support is more diverse than Peters’, to be sure, but still, 50% of his campaign funds come from a political party. Individuals account for 23%, and business donors account for 19%.

This race is going to be a tight one, with Monica Gary pulling votes from both Griffin and Durant, per a source with knowledge of the situation.

Not How Much, but How Broad?

With Cole and Griffin both far ahead in the fundraising department, the conventional wisdom says they should win. Of course, things don’t always – or even all that often – work out that way.

The real measure to watch come November 8 will be if the breadth of the candidate’s fundraising reflects a stronger voter base that will push them over the top.

That’s what the Advance will be watching Tuesday night, November 7.

And we’ll keep you informed every step of the way.

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-Martin Davis, Editor