'Survey SAYS …,' It's Complicated

Editor’s Note: As Election Day nears, watch the Advance for election returns. We will be working throughout the day and night to bring you reporting from the polls, and commentary in real time as the results come in. Stay tuned for more information.

The gameshow Family Feud was popular in the 1980s partially because survey results flummoxed the show’s followers.

There was also one answer hiding on the big board that those competing on the show could never figure out. Their guessing efforts and ensuing disappointment seemed to be a perpetual source of joy, however, for the late Richard Dawson who hosted the original series and was known for his tagline: “Survey SAYS!”

Pollsters at CNUs Wason Center must be basking in some of Dawson’s joy as they watch people scramble for answers to the upcoming election in the Center’s recent survey results.

There are no hard answers to be found in this survey because it doesn’t measure voter leanings in the most-competitive Senate and House races. (At just 800 people surveyed, it isn’t able to deliver that level of granularity.)

But looking at the results writ large, it offers some tantalizing clues to how complicated the race in Senate District 27 (Tara Durant-R vs Monica Gary-I vs Joel Griffin-D) has become, and House District 65 (Joshua Cole-D vs Lee Peters III-R) is becoming.

For the Dems, the survey has lots of good news, and some bad

Both Griffin and Cole can find reason to smile in the CNU poll.

Democratic voters are somewhat more energized than Republicans to turn out during this election. (70% of Dems vs 61% of Republicans have given this upcoming election a “lot of thought” or “some thought.”

In addition, the most important issue among Democratic voters continues to be abortion policy (25% of likely Dem voters). Both Griffin and Cole have been touting their bona fides in television and multimedia ads, so that bodes well for them.

Moreover, Virginians are happy with the state’s abortion laws as now written (49% of voters), and some want them loosened (23%).

And finally, there’s the issue of book banning. Among survey takers, there was a visceral reaction to book bans. Fully 84% disagreed with the following statement: “if any parent objects to a book in the public-school library, that book should be removed, even if other parents like the book.” And 73% agreed that libraries should carry a diversity of topics, even controversial ones.

Stronger Democratic momentum. Candidate ads in sync with Dem voters’ top issue, and voters’ strong rejection of book bans. So where’s the bad news for the Dems?

The problem for both is in Spotsylvania.

While Cole has been more visible in Spotsylvania than has Griffin, neither candidate has been vocal about the book banning issue in the county. Call it a missed opportunity.

Of Fredericksburg, Spotsylvania, and Stafford, there’s reason to suspect that voter turnout will be highest in Spotsylvania, where parents are upset with the chaos that defines the Spotsylvania School Board.

One would expect both candidates to express their opposition to book bans in TV ads to make clear to voters where they stand. Neither has. And that’s a problem in a county that is heavily Republican and name-recognition for the Democrats – especially Griffin, who is a new-comer to politics this year – is low according to some Republican sources.

The Democrats aren’t likely to win Spotsylvania, but given the three-way race for SD 27, the few votes that are in Spotsy could prove critically important. Especially if turnout is lower than expected in Stafford and Fredericksburg.

And there have been other miscues. On Sunday, for example, Cole showed up in Spotsylvania for a voter education event that featured NOW Virginia. Griffin was, surprisingly, absent. And Griffin has NOW’s endorsement.

There’s bad news in the poll numbers, too. And they materialize as positives for the Republicans.

For the Republicans, the survey’s good and bad, too

Let’s start with the bad. And there’s a lot of it for Tara Durant and Lee Peters III.

Everything that the poll suggests works in the Democrats’ favor should concern the two Republicans.

Abortion – Durant has run on a 15-week ban, but just 23% of likely voters support such a move.

Book bans – Durant has made hay of protecting children from books that a small minority of citizens consider “pornographic.” But the vast majority of Virginians support keeping these books in schools.

Teaching racial history – Durant has been critical of so-called CRT. But as with book bans, Virginians overwhelmingly favor teaching the effects of racism in public schools by a significant gap – 69% favor teaching this.

And then there’s her visibility.

If Griffin has made missteps in Spotsylvania that appear to be hurting him, Durant is steering well clear of the county. The book burners and banners in Spotsy may in theory be on her side, but the re-emergence of Matt Strictland – an independent candidate who has caused both Youngkin and Durant headaches for months – is something Durant wants no part of. So she’s steered clear of Spotsylvania.

How much that hurts her and favors Strictland remains to be seen.

So where’s the good news in all that bad?

Durant has from the beginning been running on Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s coattails. And according to the CNU poll, those coattails are long. His approval rating among voters is 55%. Meanwhile, President Joe Biden is becoming an anchor for Democrats, with the president’s approval rating among Virginians in the CNU poll at just 41%.

Then there’s the economy. Per the CNU poll, overall that’s the top concern of Virginia voters. And it’s well atop the list of concerns for Republicans. So Durant is likely to run strong with voters on that issue, despite Griffin’s pushing his pro-business bona fides.

And finally, her message about transgenderism resonates with voters. Per the CNU press release about the survey: “majorities support requiring parental notification if a student wants to go by pronouns that differ from their birth certificate (67%) and would prevent transgender athletes from participating in sports teams that match their gender identity (65%).”

Monica Gary … It’s Complicated

While Durant stays bunkered, avoiding the press and largely staying out of public view, save for her signage, and Griffin struggles with name recognition and whether to show his face in Spotsylvania as he struggles to figure out how to navigate the county’s highly politicized electorate, an independent candidate is quietly surging.

Monica Gary doesn’t fit neatly into many of the questions that the CNU poll highlights. On abortion, she is pro-choice because she recognizes the difficult circumstances that women who find themselves seeking abortions often find themselves in. It’s a position that resonates with many Americans, most of whom are neither joyfully pro-choice, or militantly pro-life.

On the economy, she connects with voters because of her own rise from poverty, and her ability to connect with people on the margins of society who struggle.

That same sort of listening ear helps her on the combative issues of CRT, and book bans, and book burnings.

For an electorate who may well be tiring and souring on the nonstop negative campaign ads filling their mail boxes and filling the airwaves, someone like Gary comes across as a welcome breath of fresh air.

More than that, while Griffin struggles with name recognition in Spotsylvania, and Durant remains difficult to gain access to (following the debate, the Advance reached out to Durant’s team twice – on Oct. 3 and 11 – with questions, something she encouraged us to do, and received no response), Gary, meanwhile, seems to be everywhere.

Like at the NOW meeting in Virginia on Sunday, where she wasn’t recognized or endorsed. Was never brought to the stage. But she was there.

In conversations with several activists in Spotsylvania, that presence is not going unnoticed, and it’s not unappreciated.

Survey SAYS!

As ever, voter turnout is the key. So we won’t know what any of this means until Nov. 8.

It’s going to be an entertaining race to watch on Tuesday, November 7.

“Survey says ….!”

Your guess is as good as ours.

Teeth-whitening?

Following the Advance’s story on Friday about the most recent misleading ballots that both Nick Ignacio and Steve Maxwell are pushing at Early Voting in Spotsylvania County, NBC4 came to Spotsylvania on Monday to investigate.

Confronted by NBC4 news’ Julie Carey about the blatantly misleading information on the ballots handed out, Ignacio responded that it was “[Carey’s] opinion” that the information was misleading.

As she pressed, Ignacio delivered an insult to the reporter. “You need to whiten your teeth.”

As we argued on Friday, laws can’t fix what’s wrong in Spotsy.

What can fix the moral rot on display [by Ignacio and Steve Maxwell] in Spotsylvania is to regain our commitment to the unwritten civic virtues that have long guided our behavior, and which Ignacio and Maxwell have clearly abandoned.

NBC4 is following up with the Attorney General to see if these ballots violate any laws or rules, and he has to date not responded.

Sen. McPike contacted the AG in July following our story exposing that Ignacio and Maxwell gathered signatures before the state Board of Election allows. On that issue, too, the AG has been silent.

New Dominion Podcast

We have had tremendous response to Michael Bush’s appearance on the New Dominion Podcast. If you missed it yesterday, listen to an incredibly talented young man at his best by skipping to the 35:45 and 40:00 mark. Thank you, Ms. Foreman!

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