A consulting firm hired by Buc-ees found that the Courthouse Road area faces debilitating traffic even without the proposed travel center.
Both the Virginia Department of Transportation and an independent transportation planning firm have raised concerns with Stafford County staff about how construction of a 74,000-square-foot Buc-ees travel center will affect traffic in the area of Courthouse Road in Stafford.
The Texas-based chain has submitted an application for a conditional use permit to build a store and fueling stations at the intersection of Courthouse Road and Austin Ridge Drive in the Garrisonville district.
A consultant with Kimley-Horne, which Buc-ees hired to conduct a traffic impact analysis, informed staff on November 9, 2023, that traffic volume in the area will increase to unsustainable levels by 2031 even without the Buc-ees, according to an email that was shared with the Advance.
“We wanted to make Stafford County aware that based on the proposed background development some traffic volumes have increased substantially,” wrote David Capparuccini, a consultant with Kimley-Horne, in an email to Mike Zuraf, acting director of planning and zoning for Stafford County.
Capparuccini goes on to suggest certain movements and intersections will fail even if Buck-ees weren’t built.
The consultants estimated that, “Between now and 2031, 107,728 new daily external trips will be added to the overall roadway network,” amounting to 5,750 peak morning trips; 10,414 peak afternoon trips; and 10,755 peak weekend trips, Capparuccini wrote.
He asked Stafford to “re-confirm these assumed background developments will occur and when.”
A Lengthy List of Developments
The approved development projects in the area, according to a list prepared by Zuraf, include:
- Fountain Park, with 309 multi-family residential units
- Courthouse Tracts, with a “high turnover sit-down restaurant”
- A 320,000-square-foot medical office at Stafford Hospital
- Potomac Church Data Center
- Potomac Church Farms, with 155 single-family units
- Stafford Commons, a 40,000-square-foot shopping center
- Burns Corner, which encompasses many thousands of square feet of retail and office space
- Venture Business Park, 250,000-square feet of industrial/flex office space
- Westgate Center, with a 200-room hotel; 100,000 square feet of office uses; and a 425,000-square-foot shopping center
- Embrey Mill Residential, with 100 single-family detached units, 150 senior multi-family units, and 50 senior single-family units
- Embrey Mill Town Center
- Embrey Mill Phase 3A, with 100 multi-family retirement units and 152 multi-family units, plus commercial retail and office space.
- Austin Ridge Commercial, with 76,412 square feet of commercial retail
- Merritt at Austin Ridge, with 400,000 square-feet of flex office/light industrial uses
- Austin Ridge logistics center, a 2 million square-foot distribution warehouse
As of early this year, according to a January 17 email from Angela Janik, a project coordinator with Buc-ees, to Stafford County’s business development manager Josh Summits, the traffic impact analysis was being prepared based on the assumption that some of these developments would be between 25% and 100% built out.
Janik’s January 17 email includes a chart showing that Austin Ridge logistics center would be 100% built out, Austin Ridge commercial center would be 75% built out, Merritt at Austin Ridge would be 100% built out, Stafford Commons 100% built out, Stafford Hospital 25% built out, and Westgate Center 50% built out.
It’s not clear from the chart for what year buildout was being forecast, but emails between Kimley-Horne and Stafford County staff reference 2031.
A few days later, Stan Beard, Buc-ees’ director of real estate and development, told Summits that the approved developments were showing “considerable traffic impact” on their tract, specifically calling out Westgate and Burns Corner.
“Of the multiple ‘documented background developments’ whose impacts are required in our [traffic impact analysis], which ones are a) actively constructing, and/or b) complying with whatever proffered improvements are required of them?” Beard asked. “We have high hopes for this location; and high hurdles to clear.”
Kimley-Horne had pressed Stafford for clarification of Westgate’s proffered traffic improvements in the area in November of 2023.
“Based on our review of the proposed development, it appears that the southern entrance will no longer exist for this site given the location of the proposed Buc-ees,” wrote Alex Iliev, a Kimley-Horne planner, in an email to Zuraf. “With this assumption, all traffic generated by the Westgate development will be destined to/from the northern entrance which appears to align with the proposed Buc-ees Boulevard roadway.”
Shifting Build-out Projections
On February 1, Zuraf replied to the email chain started by Janik, the Buc-ees project coordinator, attaching a “revised background development list identifying approved unbuilt development (type and amount) and the buildout percentage at year 2027-28 in the vicinity of the proposed Buc-ees site.”
In the revised list provided by Zuraf, Austin Ridge logistics and commercial centers, and Merritt at Austin Ridge are shown as 25% built out (down from 100% in the Jan. 17 chart); Westgate at 0% (down from 50%); Stafford Commons at 50% (down from 100%); and Stafford Hospital at 0% (down from 25%).
Kimley-Horne prepared and published the traffic impact analysis, which is included with Buc-ees conditional use permit application, in February of this year. It does not include either the Fountain Park or Westgate developments.
“Additionally, based on correspondence with the Stafford County, it was determined that the Westgate Center would not be included as part of the background developments due to the uncertainty of when it would be built out,” the report states.
VDOT’s concerns
Transportation planners with VDOT have questioned the removal of Westgate from the traffic impact analysis. Notes from an April 2 meeting to review proffers, which were shared with the Advance, question, “Why is there zero traffic coming from Westgate? Mike Zuraf assigned 0% for Westgate development?”
VDOT notes from an April 17 meeting with Buc-ees and Stafford County also question the assumption that Westgate will generate no traffic.
“Only exit for Westgate,” the notes read. “Westgate will use that signal, so there can’t be 0% traffic to it.”
VDOT employees have warned since last summer that traffic impacts of Buc-ees will be significant.
Several days prior to an August 29, 2023, meeting between VDOT and Kimley-Horne to prepare for the traffic impact analysis work, VDOT senior planning specialist Cassandra Lord told co-workers that she “very much disagree[d]” with trip generation estimates provided by Buc-ees.
“I normally would not say anything … but as a former Texas resident … I very much disagree with them using these numbers,” Lord wrote in an email, which was shared with the Advance. “I know I have seen a lot more vehicles entering and exiting a Buc-ees in a peak hour then what they have shown below.”
Following the August pre-scope of work meeting, Kimley-Horne provided VDOT with a “trip generation assumption memo.”
VDOT’s Fredericksburg district traffic engineer Peter Hedrich told colleagues in a September 8 email that he found the memo to be “rather brief and lacking sufficient detail to support their statements and conclusions.”
Carolyn Oster, assistant resident engineer, communicated VDOT’s concerns with the traffic memo to Kimley-Horne on September 26.
“We need the [memo] to be evaluated based on factual information as opposed to judgement based on qualitative measures such as ‘similar adjacent land uses and geographic characteristics,’” Oster wrote.
Kimley-Horne apparently provided VDOT with a revised traffic memo, which VDOT’s traffic engineers reviewed and continued to find “subjective,” according to notes compiled on October 6 by Hedrich.
Hedrich also noted that the driveways into the proposed Buc-ees would result in “congestion on site and along Austin Ridge drive.”
On November 20, Hedrich shared concerns about the trip generation from the approved developments surrounding Buc-ees with Erik Strohhaker, an engineer with traffic consulting firm Green Light Solutions.
“We are currently working through the ‘approved development’ question for the Buc-ees project,” Hedrich wrote. “It seems the trip generation from those projects are quite significant, so we are meeting next week to discuss how to address that question.”
Strohhaker responded, “I certainly understand the issues regarding the amount of approved development in the area. Significant is a good description.”
VDOT’s April 5, 2024, review of the final Kimley-Horne traffic impact analysis continues to identify issues, such as “a significant safety issue” at the shared southbound through and left-turn lane from Buc-ees Boulevard onto Austin Ridge Drive; a “problematic” high number of U-turns at that location; and “worsening,” “degrading” and “failing” intersections at Courthouse Road and Austin Ridge Drive, U.S. 1 and Hospital Center Boulevard, and U.S. 1 and Courthouse Road, among others.
Buc-ees Appealing to County and State-level Administrators
This spring, Buc-ees retained the law firm Gentry Locke to assist with its conditional use permit application. Attorneys with the firm have been meeting with members of the Board of Supervisors and county staff.
On March 1, Karen Cohen, an attorney with Gentry Locke, asked Zuraf for a meeting to discuss “transportation related issues,” according to an email shared with the Advance.
Zach LeMaster, another Gentry Locke attorney, emailed Craig Meadows, Stafford’s interim County Attorney, on April 19, saying that he would be “in Stafford on April 24 and would welcome the chance to meet. We represent Buc-ee’s.”
On April 24, LeMaster sent a text message to Supervisor Darrell English, telling him, “Spoke to Meg [Bohmke]. She asked if we met. We answered her honestly.”
English replied, “Ok that fine.” At a later date, LeMaster asked English, “Do you have any additional thoughts on where Supervisor [Tinesha] Allen may be on the project?” English did not respond to this question via text, according to the messages that were shared with the Advance.
Buc-ees is also enlisting assistance with its application from appointees of Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin.
In early March, Beard, Buc-ees’ real estate and development director, emailed Virginia Transportation Secretary W. Sheppard Miller and Deputy Secretary John Lawson, to let them know that the company had submitted the conditional use permit application to Stafford County.
“This store has the potential to be our ‘most popular’ store and we are excited about another Virginia community,” Beard wrote. “One of our bigger asks is again related to transportation and VDOT.”
Beard said Buc-ees is requesting a “slip lane” from the Interstate 95 exit ramp to funnel traffic directly to the travel center.
“Stafford County is supportive of the request, but they will obviously defer to VDOT and break-in-access protocol,” Beard wrote. “I’m pretty sure I will need some relationship help with VDOT District folks: Peter Hedrich, Carolyn Oster, and Cathy Coffey.”
According to the Virginia Public Access Project, Buc-ees founder Arch Aplin III donated $50,000 to Youngkin’s Spirit of Virginia PAC in 2023.
by Adele Uphaus
MANAGING EDITOR AND CORRESPONDENT
