There’s a saying among those who follow elections that “Democrats fall in love, and Republicans fall in line.” The insinuation being that in the end, Republicans will vote R on Election Day, regardless of their personal feelings about the candidate because the party is unified in its disdain for Democrats.
That saying may have run its course in Spotsylvania County, where the Republican Committee is deeply divided and appears to be in a state of open conflict with itself.
People familiar with meetings of the Spotsylvania Republican Committee tell FXBG Advance that there are three factions that are so disdainful of one another they cannot be in the same space together, so they sit in three distinct areas.
There are the “regular” Republicans (people such as Del. Bobby Orrock and Spotsylvania Board of Supervisors member Chris Yakabouski), a faction led by Dale Swanson that plays the role of disrupters, and the most extreme individuals in the conservative movement (Nick Ignacio who is running for Clerk of Court, Matt Strickland who is running a write-in campaign against Republican Nominee Tara Durant for Senate District 27, and Roy Searles who is on the ballot for Spotsylvania Board of Supervisors).
In recent weeks, those tensions have flared.
On August 30, newly elected chairman of the Spotsylvania Republican Committee, Rabih Abuismail, sent a cease and desist letter to Nick Ignacio. It read, in part:
This letter is served in response to your recent activities of using the name, image, or likeness of the Spotsylvania Republican Committee without the expressed consent to do so. If you do not cease the aforementioned activity a lawsuit will be commenced against you.
Ignacio was given until today, September 14, to respond to the letter. At this time, the FXBG Advance does not know if that response has been delivered.
The tensions between the Republicans and Ignacio, who is not a member of the committee, have been building for years. The question is: Why has the committee taken action at this time?
The Advance reached out twice to Abuismail to ask why one of his first moves as chair was to send the sternly worded threat to Ignacio. As of Tuesday night, he has not responded.
This move follows on the heels of a battle that broke out between Del. Phillip Scott, who originally endorsed Ignacio in June, and then quickly withdrew that endorsement. On conservative social networks and websites, that decision drew the ire of the most extreme individuals.
Ignacio’s cease and desist letter arrived about a week before another of the extremists, Roy Searles – whose antics at Spotsylvania County School Board meetings have led to his being removed on more than one occasion – was removed as a member of the Republican Committee.
The extremists who have been roiling the Republican Committee in Spotsylvania for several years have become such a distraction that they’ve managed to do something that previously wasn’t deemed possible.
The “regular” Republicans and the “disrupters” now have a common enemy they’ve banded together against: Ignacio and Searles, according to a person familiar with the situation.
What will happen in November?
The question that is building as we move into full campaign mode is what affect all this conflict will have on the elections in November.
Turnout for the election is expected to be high in Spotsylvania, with dissatisfaction over the way the four majority members of the school board have mishandled meetings, personnel decisions, teacher retention, and more.
Independent Matt Strickland, who has openly expressed his disdain for Gov. Glenn Youngkin, Tara Durant, and RINOS (Republicans in Name Only) appears to be moving forward with his write-in campaign, and is willing to take the party down with him. As he told the Virginia Scope this week:
“I’m fighting the war on two different fronts: fighting Democrats and fighting these establishment Republicans in Name Only,” he said to conservative talk radio host John Fredericks in May.
With Searles forced out of the committee, and Ignacio a persona non grata at meetings, the real question becomes how much will they cost the Republicans in votes?
The race between Durant and Democrat Joel Griffin in SD 27 looks to be tight, with some commentators giving a slight edge at the moment to Durant. A loss of Republican support in Spotsylvania, however, could prove damaging to her.
Complicating this picture is Independent candidate Monica Gary, whose campaign started small but is gaining steam and winning over a small but committed number of both Democrat and Republican voters, she recently told FXBG Advance.
What happens post-election?
As important as the election is, for the Republicans in Spotsylvania, what happens the day after may prove more important. Whether it will be depends on what’s driving the current purge.
Is this move by Abuismail a first step toward purging the party of its most extreme elements and returning it to a more-traditional message a la Ronald Reagan and the Moral Majority?
Or is this move score-settling? Some familiar with the situation suggest that Abuismail may be motivated by personal animus toward Searles and Ignacio.
If the former, the moves the past two weeks could prove important steps in returning the Republicans in Spotsylvania to a position where they engage in the public square again with Democrats and Independents on the level of ideas, as opposed to self-isolating as they have in recent years.
If the latter, it could mark the beginning of a longer, more-bitter battle, for the heart and soul of the party in Spotsylvania.
Image: “Spotsylvania County-City of Fredericksburg Line” by jimmywayne is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 2.0.
