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ANALYSIS: SD 27 Race a Ross Perot-type Moment

- September 20, 2023

Independents in American politics have a long history of being on the fringes, often teetering on the edge of reality. That’s why they’ve proven so entertaining.

Saturday Night Live’s spoofs of these individuals have become legendary. Ross Perot in 1992, Herman Cain in 2012, among many others.

 

Spotsylvanians have had a front row seat to such candidates the past few years. Unfortunately, their actions haven’t induced laughter.

It started when a slate of Tea Party extremists, united only in their disdain for public education, took control of the School Board and proceeded to turn board meetings into a national laughing-stock.

Their fear-based politics metastasized this summer when so-called independents for non-school-board offices starting casting stones to attract attention to their own largely policy-less campaigns.

On August 10, for example, Spotsylvania NAACP president Mo Petway sent a letter to Kellie Acors, registrar at Spotsylvania Board of Elections, requesting that she “take action to disqualify and remove … from the 2023 election ballot” three candidates in Spotsylvania County who appear to have violated state guidelines for signature collection. (The Advance broke this story on July 16).

In response to that letter, the extremists charged that the NAACP was doing the sheriff’s biding. Their proof? A $100 contribution to the NAACP made by the Sheriff’s Office – a contribution made two years earlier in Fall 2021.

That contribution came following a solicitation from the Spotsy NAACP in August 2021 requesting funds to help host a “virtual fundraising event.”

The Sheriff’s Office obliged, offering the minimum contribution of $100 to support the event. The contribution was hardly unusual.

According to Major Troy Skebo, prior to COVID the Sheriff’s Office routinely contributed tens of thousands of dollars to local organizations. Some through the department’s 501c3 arm, some through private donations that people and organizations send to the department to support others in the community.

The money to support the NAACP was paid from the latter funds.

“The Sheriff’s Office is honored to support our community and its organizations,” said Skebo.

The size of the contribution. The fact that the NAACP is not the only organization to receive such funding. And the timing of the contribution – two years prior to Petway’s letter to Kellie Acors – tells reasonable people that there is no quid pro quo going on.

Is it any wonder independent candidates are more comedy relief than serious political thinkers?

The Perot Effect

To lump Perot with the extremists in Spotsylvania County, however, would be a mistake. For all of Perot’s political naivete, which was fully on display in the 92 debates, there was also something genuine about the man.

He was tapping in to the growing sense that the American political structure was breaking. That the two dominant parties were doing more to serve their own needs than the needs of those who put them into office.

And a good proportion of the population agreed with him. Perot carried almost 19 percent of the popular vote – but nary an Electoral College vote.

Perot may have been a generation too soon.

Today, independents are on the rise again. To be sure, there are those on the fringes of reality – see the storyline above – but increasingly independents are sounding, and running, as serious contenders.

Consider what is happening in our region.

In SD 27, Tara Durant (R) and Joel Griffin (D have all the money. Similarly Bryce Reeves (R) in SD 28.

But listen to Elizabeth Meslom, who is challenging Reeves in SD 28, or Monica Gary, who is challenging Durant and Griffin in SD 27. Both have far less money. But both are running positive, issue-first campaigns grounded in connecting with voters.

In Melsom’s rural region, that means connecting with local farmers and addressing issues related to strengthening farmers’ markets and loosening restrictions on the consumption of raw milk.

Gary, by contrast, is appealing to an increasingly urbanized electorate. And her listen-first approach is resonating with voters. So much so that she has become the object of attack adds.

Talk with people who meet Gary, and they’re struck by her personality, her ability to listen deeply to voters, and her compelling personal story. She takes stands that polls show Americans are broadly in favor of. On abortion, for example, she’s come out against standing between a woman and her doctor on this most intimate decision, despite her own deeply felt evangelical religious faith.

At the same time, she’s deeply committed to family and human dignity. In an age of AI, monopolies, and government policies that disproportionately favor the well-to-do, her call for respecting humanity is finding an audience.

“I will work to codify reproductive rights immediately,” she told FXBG Advance..” I will also fight to reduce the requirement for later term abortion care to two doctors opinions instead of three, which is cost restrictive and unnecessarily burdensome in already difficult situations.”

Her position is temperate. Not fairly categorized as strongly pro-abortion, and certainly not anti-abortion. It mirrors the vast majority of Americans who believe abortion should be “legal to some degree.”

In a debate that’s hopelessly partisan, Gary is giving people another way to talk about the issue.

Reflecting the New National Normal

This phenomenon is not simply local. Nationwide, people are open about their disdain for traditional party politics, and embracing the “independent” label.

Since 2004, interest in the Democrat and Republican parties has fallen, while voters self-identifying as independents has surged.

“We spend our days captivated by people with the most power and the biggest mouths,
wrote Mike Allen for Axios in January. “But it turns out a rising number of Americans want something else — political independence.”

And as more come onboard, those who have traditionally been identified as on the fringes will have a harder time gaining support or being taken seriously.

Matt Strickland, for example, personifies the extremist independent. Flaunting state COVID laws, defiantly serving alcohol after court orders to stop, Strickland became a cult hero to some in Spotsylvania.

But he was mistaken if he thought that voters would rally to him as they did to Trump in 2016. In fact, they fled the other way.

Durant crushed Strickland in the primaries.

He’s now mounting an independent run for the Senate – and the House – as a write-in candidate. His campaign is hardly causing a whimper.

It may, however, ultimately cause Durant and Griffin heartburn.

He pulls away strong Durant voters. He pulls in voters Griffin hoped to steal. And Gary is winning by gaining voter-share.

So much so that Tara Durant targeted her in a recent ad, whereby she put Griffin and Gary on the front of a mailer with the in-your-face caption: “Extreme progressives Joel Griffin & Monica Gary would raise your taxes.”

It’s fear-mongering campaigning at its best.

It may not be working.

The Advance has learned that among some party leaders in Richmond, both Republican and Democrat, there is a growing concern that Gary may have a narrow path to win in November.

When infighting starts (Strickland, the Republican Party in Spotsy in disarray, and the Democratic Party in Spotsylvania afraid to move aggressively), strange things can happen on election day.

Ross Perot was born a generation too early. Were he alive, however, he’d certainly recognize the moment.

American politics are changing, and voters are ready for something better. Will November 7 be the start of an empowered independent movement?

It’s too early to know. But you can bet the establishment candidates are watching, and worried.

Image: “1992 Ross Perot Presidential Campaign Button, Measures 2.25 Inches In Diameter” by France1978 is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0.

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by Martin Davis EDITOR-IN-CHIEF

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