Early voters can rest; the rest have a decision before Tuesday. This morning, the Advance looks at campaign money, the state of the race, early voting data, and what voters need to know tomorrow.
Today is a day to breathe for those who voted early. For those who have still to vote, it’s a day to finalize your decision and put together a plan for Election Day.
For those who haven’t voted, here’s the state of the race as of this morning.
Money
The CD-7 race between Democrat Eugene Vindman and Republican Derrick Anderson attracted more money than any other congressional race in Virginia. Vindman alone raised over $15 million — the vast majority of it from outside of Virginia. That total is more than Jen Kiggans (Republican Candidate CD-2), Anderson, Missy Cotter Smasal (Democratic Candidate CD-2), and Jennifer McClellan (Democratic Candidate CD-4) — the next highest fundraisers this year — combined. And the vast majority of Vindman’s money came from outside Virginia. Anderson, too, received more money from outside than inside Virginia, but not by as significant a percentage as Vindman.
The CD-7 race, in short, is a national race and will be in the spotlight election night. Ballotpedia lists 55 congressional districts as “battlegrounds” this year. In Virginia, CD-7 and CD-2 between Kiggans and Smasal are so designated. This helps explain the extraordinary amount of money that has flowed to this Vindman.
Why is the money story interesting? Because the race is so close.
Toss-up
Despite an extraordinary cash advantage — Vindman has outspent Anderson by a 7-to-1 margin — this race is a virtual dead heat. Both the Cook Political Report in Inside Elections rate this contest a toss-up. Decision Desk HQ and The Hill, and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate it “likely Democratic” and “Leans Democratic.”
In short, Vindman’s huge financial advantage isn’t translating into voters, if the prognosticators are correct.
The Advance has consistently argued that the key to victory will be in Spotsylvania and Stafford counties.
Prince William County is solidly Democratic and Vindman can expect to pocket a large majority of the voters as Abigail Spanberger did in 2022. But Spotsylvania and Stafford still represent 39% of the CD-7 population base.
In 2022, Spanberger’s Republican rival Yesli Vega carried Stafford County by a miniscule 0.21%. A stunning achievement considering that two years earlier when Stafford was in CD-1, Republican Rob Wittman carried the district by almost 10 percentage points.
It’s difficult to know how much of Spanberger’s gains in Stafford were due to demographics and how much were due to her appeal to voters. But to win, Vindman is going to have to be as successful as Spanberger in 2022 in Stafford.
A similar tale is unfolding in Spotsylvania County. In 2022, Spanberger lost the county by 7 percentage points. Two years earlier, she had lost it by 12. Those gains were instrumental in bringing her back to Congress for a third term. Vindman will again have to maintain the margin — or not lose substantial ground — that Spanberger held in 2022 to win this race. That will be difficult considering that Anderson is a Spotsylvania native and has strong support in the county. However, Democratic Committee chair Jeff Kent has done a solid job energizing Dems in this Red district, which should help Vindman.
Fredericksburg will also be worth watching. Spanberger carried the city by 33 percentage points in 2022. Vindman will certainly take the city, but by what margin? Under the leadership of Scott Vezina, the Republicans have made gains in the city. Not enough to deliver Fredericksburg for Anderson, but enough to potentially cut into the lead that Spanberger enjoyed two years ago.
Early Voting
Statewide, early voting is lagging behind that of 2022, but strong nonetheless. According to VPAP, 2,288,498 votes have been cast. In 2020, 2,739,876 early ballots were cast over the same time period.
Locally, voters have not kept pace with early-voting turnout in 2020.
Turnout has been stubbornly low in CD-7, however, where nearly 85,000 fewer voters have gone to the polls. This, coupled with VPAP’s finding that considerably more Republicans voted early in 2024 than in 2024, suggests Vindman could be in for a tough night if Democratic voters don’t turnout strong on Tuesday.
Also, it’s interesting to note that the highest early-voter turnout in our readership area has been voters from the Courtland Elementary School precinct, where 53.8% of registered voters have cast a ballot; and the Riverbend High School district, where 46.8% of registered voters have cast a ballot.
These are Anderson strongholds, so the numbers don’t necessarily surprise.
But again, they point to the importance of Spotsylvania and Stafford to this election.
Vote Early
Though early voting has been relatively strong, expect large numbers of people at the polls on Tuesday.
The weather forecast is for a pleasant day, with a low of 60 degrees and a high of 77, and no chance of rain. So come prepared to stand in line, especially if you plan to vote early or late.
Polls close at 7 PM, but so long as you are in line at 7, you will be allowed to vote.
It’s also important to know your rights as a voter. The Virginia Department of Elections spells these out clearly.
If you are not sure of where your polling location is, the VDOE has an online tool that will point you to the right place.
Finally, if at any time while you are at the polling site you feel that someone is trying to impede your right to vote, report the situation immediately to a poll worker. They are trained to deal with these situations.
Now, Vote
Today, don’t pay attention to polls or predictions or forecasts. The bottom line is that voters decide elections. Not polls. And as we have seen over the past several elections, the polls often get it wrong. (For an in-depth look at why, read this piece from the Harvard Gazette.)
Make your voice heard.
Yesterday just after 4:20 – Handicapped entrance next to the sidewalk. As soon as she pulled in, her daughter who was driving said there was a big guy standing at the car. We got out of the car and there were 3 women with red hats and red ballots before we got to the sidewalk. Got into line and one person wanted to verify if I was a Spotsy resident.
Why didn’t I report it? Because I just wanted to vote and be done with it. One held her hands up to keep us from getting in line. Mainly just the woman asking me questions that she has no authority to do. Saturday. I came out from voting about 4:49.
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