Somewhat better numbers recently belie a deadlier 10-year trend. Until computers take drivers out of the equation, improving drivers is the surest way to decreasing accidents and fatalities.
We are living in an age of transportation paradox. The future is bright for electric vehicles, even as Americans stubbornly hold on to their gas-guzzlers. Cars have never been more technologically advanced, and never less affordable than they are right now.
Most disturbing, however, is this paradox. Engineering advances over the past 20 years have made our cars structurally sounder and safer than at any point before — something the Virginia-based Insurance Institute for Highway Safety has played a significant role in making possible — even as fatalities have continued to grow.
These fatalities overwhelmingly are caused by human error.
In coming years, smart cars promise to greatly reduce highway fatalities by taking people out of the driver’s seat (though as MIT’s Moral Machine shows, this won’t eliminate tragic accidents).
Until that day comes, however, the best path to improving road safety is to improve drivers. Unfortunately, we’re a long way from that.
What the Data Show
A new study by the inelegantly named A National Transportation Research Nonprofit (TRIP) shows that Virginia’s fatalities in automobile crashes between 2021 and 2023 have fallen both in raw numbers (-6%) and in fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled (-9%).
Unfortunately, those numbers must be weighed against a larger disturbing trend. Between 2013 and 2023, traffic fatalities in Viriginia have risen 24%, while fatalities per 100M VMT are up 20%.
These numbers are roughly consistent with the overall national trend.
Even with the two-year decline, driving is considerably more dangerous today than it was a decade ago.
Comparing data from the TRIP study with the 2023 Virginia Traffic Crash Facts report shines some light on where the troubles are.
Following steep declines in 2020 in the number of crashes involving alcohol and speed, we’ve seen a steady rise ever since.
That rise might have been expected, as COVID led to fewer cars on the road.
However, while there were far fewer vehicle miles traveled, the number of fatal accidents per million miles driven rose sharply during COVID, according to a National Institutes of Health report.
According to statistics from the National Highway Traffic Administration (NHTSA), in 2020, the United States experienced an increase of approximately 7.2% in the number of deaths resulting from motor vehicle traffic crashes, with about 38,680 fatalities being reported. Additionally, the country witnessed a reduction of approximately 13.2% in vehicle-miles traveled (VMT), totaling to 430.2 billion fewer VMTs. The mortality rate for 2020 stood at 1.37 deaths per million VMTs, marking an increase from the 2019 rate of 1.11 deaths per million VMTs (NHTSA, 2021). This can be linked to the speeding and aggressive driving that has been observed on less-congested roads due to the lower traffic volumes.
Accidents involving unrestrained occupants realized no dip in 2020, and those numbers have climbed sharply.
There were 5,659 unrestrained occupant crashes in 2023, a 4.3% increase over 2022.
The good news is that while crashes are up, the percent of people killed is down — 9.8% for 2023 over 2022.
Non-interstate Roads Less Safe
With I95 playing a significant role in traffic movement in our area, it can be easy to believe that most of the accidents occur there.
However, of the 127,597 crashes in Virginia last year, fully 84% of them occurred on non-interstate roads.
Fatal accidents, however, are another story. Interstate highways, unsurprisingly, are where most of these occur. Spotsylvania County rates high for fatalities, but the vast majority of these occur on the stretch of I95 that runs through the county.
Where to Improve
The real tragedy for many accidents and fatalities is that better care on the part of drivers and passengers could significantly lower these numbers.
Of the automobile fatalities in Virginia for 2023, most involved at least one of the following factors. (Note — percent total exceeds 100% because fatal accidents often involve two or more of the following factors):
- 53.8% were unrestrained occupants
- 49.5% involved speeding
- 32.3% involved alcohol
Buckle up. Slow down. Don’t drink and drive.
There’s no mystery to improving safety on the roads. These three factors alone could potentially significantly decrease the number of deaths on our roadways.
Each of these factors is something that drivers and passengers can control.
Until we reach the point where we can take humans out of the driving equation, we must take it upon ourselves to improve safety — for the sake of all involved.
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